This may not seem particularly grandiose, and probably not even close to Cooperstown worthiness, but it should be noted that with sixty-five elected, starting pitcher is far and away the most commonly enshrined position in the Hall (it has also, pre-bullpen expansion, been the most common position, so this shouldnt be too surprising). Pirates, Cardinals 2022 Opening Day FAQ - MLB.com Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted How much more does Wainwright need to do to make the Hall of Fame in His induction was most likely heavily influenced by his passing, but I think sets the bar for what a pitcher needs to have accomplished in recent years. All picks and predictions are suggestions only. For more information, please read our Legal Disclaimer. Alas, just before the All-Star break, the 33-year-old southpaw landed on the injured list due to inflammation in his left forearm and hasnt even gotten to the point of a rehab stint yet after suffering a setback in late July. (approx 1 - 2 per week). Adam Wainwright (44.0 career | 35.5 Peak | 39.8 JAWS, +2.1 JAWS). Wainwright attributed the late 2022 freefall to a hitch in his delivery after hed been struck on the knee by a batted ball. Drew move to Atlanta. Your email address will not be published. Sure there are. Gibson, who died last October, finished with 3,117. Guerrero was seen walking toward the clubhouse with an athletic trainer in the second inning and was replaced defensively by Rainer Nunez to start the third. What would Adam Wainwright need to do in 2022 to deserve Hall of Fame The key number regarding Gooden is 48.0, which is the average of his career bWAR, his bWAR7, his career fWAR, and his fWAR7. Cy Young awards, no-hitters, and ERA titles may be better methods for evaluating the 21st century pitcher than the sheer outdated statistic of wins.. In that piece, I highlighted 10 position players, some of whom have gained significant ground via JAWS, others who reached major milestones or simply returned to productivity after injury-plagued stretches. He founded the Futility Infielder website (2001), was a columnist for Baseball Prospectus (2005-2012) and a contributing writer for Sports Illustrated (2012-2018). For relievers, Im using the WAR-and-WPA hybrid stat via which Ive examined recent candidates such as Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman, and Billy Wagner. Adam Wainwright will return for his 19th season with the. The Hall of Fame case for St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Adam Wainwright . Ive lost track. Wainwright is absolutely not going to make it to Cooperstown, and the numbers say he shouldn't, but you can squint and you can cherry-pick statistics to make an argument for Wainwright if you enter with an agenda. After posting a 3.84 expected ERA in 2022, that metric jumped to 4.53 last season. His 2011 season, in which he went 24-5 with a 2.40 ERA and led the league in a slew of categories wins, ERA, games started, innings pitched, strikeouts, WHIP, adjusted ERA, and hits allowed per nine innings earned him a distinction that hadnt been accomplished since Roger Clemens in 1986. Perhaps his national profile and general likability increases due to his seemingly inevitable second act as a broadcasterWainwright received rave reviews as a postseason broadcaster last yearand this media visibility helps him in a media-driven contest such as Hall of Fame balloting. What a different story we could be telling about 'Waino' had he stayed in Atlanta. Adam Wainwright joined Hall of Famer Bob Gibson as the only St. Louis Cardinals pitchers with 2,000 strikeouts, fanning Milwaukee's Luis Uras in the fourth inning Thursday. 122-66, 3.24 ERA, 1,621 strikeouts, 123 adjusted ERA. This is a question that has been frequently raised throughout the season as the Cardinals' 'Big Three' (Pujols, Wainwright, Molina) were constantly praised by St. Louis fans. Heres a report on Wainwrights Thursday start against the Astros from The Athletics Katie Woo: The velocity on all five of the pitches in his mix averaged between 3-4 mph slower than their average readings in 2022. Sep 14, 2022; St. Louis, Missouri, USA; St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Adam Wainwright (50) pitches against the Milwaukee Brewers during the fifth inning at Busch Stadium. Is Adam Wainwright Hall of Fame or Hall of Very good? Adam Wainwright Archives - Cooperstown Cred Kimbrel has an option for next year, which I think is likely to be exercised, so he wont be a free agent until 2023. Adam Wainwright K's McCormick | 03/02/2023 | MLB.com Pujols, Wainwright and Molina were each given an introduction and trotted out to the diamond to be greeted by 16 Cardinals Hall of Famers. But compared to Molina or especially Pujols, Adam Wainwright is an underdog. He struck out 14 in his MLB debut and it seemed evident that he and Bryce Harper were going to lead the team to not only a World Series championship, but multiple titles. Please contact us. The ageless Bartolo Colon leads all active pitchers with 235, CC Sabathia is next at 230, and then its down to John Lackey at 180. The Hall of Stats was built by Adam Darowski, Jeffrey Chupp, and Michael Berkowitz.Follow the Hall of Stats on Twitter or Facebook.The Hall of Stats is open sourced on GitHub.All data is also open and available as a free download. The best pitcher in MLB? Throughout his career, Wainwright has won a World Series and has been selected to the All-Star game three times. Laurie Skrivan, St, Louis Post-Dispatch Here's a look at some other top Cardinals not in the Hall of Fame. 156-111, 3.18 ERA, 2,286 strikeouts, 126 adjusted ERA. Here's how WBC offenses stack up with MLB's best, Scherzer tries to test pitch clock limits, gets balk, Jays 'playing it safe' after Guerrero tweaks knee, PitchCom-tipping: Loud device leaks Twins calls, Eflin's first start after $40M deal impresses Rays, Rangers' Leclerc to miss WBC with neck injury, Rockies' Rodgers may need surgery, '23 at risk, Rojas to withdraw from WBC, stay with Dodgers. Five years ago, Max Scherzer had no Hall of Fame case. That being said, the question I had is what a retirement for Adam Wainwright . ago. NeverSober1900. He was traded to St. Louis in 2003 from the Braves in a deal that saw outfielder J.D. Im far less convinced he deserves that, but using FanGraphs framing-inclusive WAR for catchers (supplemented by Baseball Prospectus pre-2008 framing data), its clear that he deserves a boost beyond off-the-shelf JAWS. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Has Yadier Molina Successfully Framed His Hall of Fame Case? Adam Wainwright's age is 41. While best known for his voice as the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch for 26 years, Bernie has also written for The Athletic, Dallas Morning News and Baltimore News American. But if youd told me four years ago when his career looked absolutely left for dead that I would even half-heartedly entertain the notion, I would have doubted that even more. Poll : Should Adam Wainwright be in the Hall of Fame? Covering the latest and most controversial news around the world of sports, heavily centered on the Philadelphia Eagles and National Football League. However, per his stats, it would not be surprising if he is inducted in his first year of eligibility. Bernie invites you to listen to his opinionated and analytical sports-talk show on 590 The Fan, KFNS-AM. Your existing password has not been changed. Hey, at least the Cardinals added a proven, quality big-league starting pitcher this past offseason. Adam Wainwright was born on the 30th of August, 1981. All rights reserved. Let's take a look at Flaherty. The just-turned-40-year-old is currently in the midst of a late-career renaissance (2.97 ERA, 3.1 WAR), leaving many to wonder what might have been if not for the injuries that effectively cost him three seasons from ages 29 to 36. Both legends are heading off into the sunset, their final stop before they end up in Cooperstown in just a few short years. Given the way hes been pitching as of late, thats certainly not farfetched. Wainos going to do that whether hes here or not, and thats a trust thing that Im not concerned with.. We've sent an email with instructions to create a new password. Dont hold your breath. He is known for being a Baseball Player. He went from having a 3.8 WAR in 2021 to 2.8 WAR last year. Price (155 wins) is the only active pitcher within 30 wins of Wainwright, with Cueto (135) and Bumgarner (127) much further behind. For a five-year span from 2007-2011, CC Sabathia was regarded as one of the elite pitchers in the game, and he took three different teams to the postseason, winning a ring with the 2009 Yankees. 2000-2023 Rogers Media. In the spirit of giving my readers what they want, heres a lightning round, where Ill keep things uncharacteristically brief. Adam Wainwright has the second-most WAR of any Cardinals pitcher all-time (44.5). The 2022 campaign was supposed to be the last for Adam Wainwright as well, although he has left the door slightly open for a return next year. Injury? Adam WainWright's MLB stats are Win-loss record 195-115, Earned run average 3.35 and Strikeouts 2,142. Hes 28th in R-JAWS, 1.2 points behind the lowest-ranked enshrined reliever (Bruce Sutter), and at age 33, needs to rebound if hes to have a shot at election that is, if voters will overlook his 2016 suspension under MLBs domestic violence policy, which is uncharted territory for Hall candidates. By what Ill provisionally call R(eliever)-JAWS, hes climbed from 22nd all-time to 15th, which is still well below the standard for the eight enshrined relievers (29.7). Saturday marked the end of an era for the St. Louis Cardinals. It happens a lot. Upon losing in the Wild Card round, the franchise's attention shifted to the offseason and what will happen to some of their aging players. deGrom has already racked up significant value even while qualifying for the ERA title only five times in eight seasons. Reports on Wednesday, October 26th, say that Wainwright will return to the Cardinals for his 19th MLB season with the club, as he continues to chase his 200th career win. The 2022 campaign was supposed to be the last for Adam Wainwright as well, although he has left the door slightly open for a return next year. MILWAUKEE Adam Wainwright joins Hall of Famer Bob Gibson as the only St. Louis Cardinals' pitchers with 2,000 strikeouts, fanning Milwaukee's Luis Urias in the fourth inning. Wainwright had won nine of 10 decisions coming in. The secret to Adam Wainwright's success? A curveball like none other Adam Wainwright, however, is a little bit trickier. But, while neither was young, per se, by baseball standards (it was deGroms age-30 season and Scherzers age-33), there is a big leap to get to Adam Wainwrights age-40 season which looms ahead. Yadier Molina's Hall of Fame case is perplexing, but here's why the After nearly two seasons in the wilderness, he regained his dominant form with the Cubs, and while hes scuffled since being traded to the White Sox while pitching in a setup role in front of Liam Hendriks, his 2.02 ERA, 2.24 FIP, and 43.2% strikeout rate make this his best season since 2017 and put him in line for another substantial free-agent payday if the White Sox decline his $16 million club option. I sincerely hope Flaherty is fine and that theres no reason for concern. But I want to consider Adam Wainwrights Hall of Fame case as a purely statistical candidate based on the statistics we currently have. 230-143, 3.70 ERA, 2,788 strikeouts, 117 adjusted ERA. No harm. King Felix is still just 31 years old, despite close to 2,500 innings on his right arm. But its just not going to happen anymore the way pitchers are used now and the way free agency is and (how) careers go. He has a $217 million contract with the Boston Red Sox, and to make the Hall of Fame, he may need another Cy Young award and a dominant performance in a World Series championship. He went 17-7 with 174 strikeouts and a 3.05 ERA in 32 starts spanning 206 1/3 innings the third-highest total in the majors. While Drew was a fine player throughout his career, he would only spend the 2004 season with the Braves. The just-turned-40-year-old is currently in the midst of a late-career renaissance (2.97 ERA, 3.1 WAR), leaving many to wonder. Eleven of the sixty-five are below Wainwright in terms of Hybrid JAWS. Yadier Molina is arguably one of the best defensive catchers in the history of baseball. It was almost a storybook season for the St. Louis Cardinals as club legends Adam Wainwright, Albert Pujols, and Yadier Molina were reunited and looked primed for a deep postseason run. The hot air balloon . The performance was unsurprisingly unsustainable. This adds up to a solid career, and one that would be worthy of the Hall of Very Good, but not the Hall of Fame. Waino certainly isn't a National Hall of Famer, but there is an argument for the Cardinals Hall of Fame for sure. All Wins Above Replacement and Wins Above Average data comes . Or follow @seeingredpod on Twitter for a direct link. Enter your email below and we'll send you another email. It is possible that he ends up as one of those players who hangs around the ballot for his decade of eligibility, getting a boost because of his time in St. Loius, but the only way he ends up in Cooperstown will be with a ticket. Bernie On The Cardinals: Wainwright and Flaherty In Spring Training Press Box: Wainwright to decide if he can continue to beat foes as well FASTBALLS JET ACROSS the baseball atmosphere in this era, booming into catchers' mitts at 100 mph or faster, and amid that sound of speed, there is Adam Wainwright's curveball. He made his 55 million dollar fortune with All-Star, St. Louis Cardinals, NL wins leader. Hes racked up four seasons worth 67 WAR, plus a fifth at 5.7 and a sixth at 4.9; to improve that peak score substantially, he needs big seasons. Greinke was dominant for the 2009 Kansas City Royals, winning the league ERA crown (2.16) and leading the AL in WHIP (1.073), and even better for the 2015 Los Angeles Dodgers, posting a ridiculous 1.66 ERA and at one point throwing 43.2 consecutive scoreless innings over six starts. (Photo by Justin Berl/Getty Images), Wainwright strongly hinted he would retire alongside longtime batterymate Yadier Molina following next season. Molina should make the Baseball Hall of Fame while Wainwright will probably fall short, but even so, we need to enjoy the final season with the longtime battery mates on the . After the divorce, his mother, Nancy, became a real estate agent and raised the boys on her own. He became a member of the Cardinals when the Atlanta Braves traded him for J.D. St. Louis Cardinals: Will Adam Wainwright get a retirement tour? Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own. Adam Wainwright was glad to see Jason Isringhausen enter the Cardinals Hall of Fame: "He had a profound impact on my career and helped me dramatically." We didn't recognize that password reset code. I took a look at 10 active starting pitchers with borderline Hall of Fame resumes and broke down their odds of enshrinement. Replacing those lost or disrupted seasons with three average Wainwright seasons a 13-7 mark with 138 strikeouts over 164 innings would have Wainwright at 223-126 with 2,418 strikeouts. Scherzer and Hernandez are among a group of pitchers at somewhat similar points in their potential Hall of Fame paths; Verlander, Cole Hamels, Zack Greinke, Adam Wainwright and Jon Lester are in . He has similar numbers (albeit slightly worse) than Roy Halladay. Strasburg hasnt been a disappointment, but he also hasnt lit the world on fire. Hes produced 5.0 WAR with his pitching but -0.6 WAR with his hitting with a remarkable .000/.000/.000 line taking this no-hitter thing a bit too literally through 50 PA; on Wednesday night, he surpassed Wei-Yin Chens record for season-opening futility, set in 2016. Theyll defer. Were not sure if hell be ready by Opening Day, but at this point our priority is to take care of this now so we can have him available for virtually the entire season. He was hit hard four balls hit off him registered exit velocities higher than 104 mph, including a 112.1 mph solo moonshot of a homer off the bat of Jos Abreu. 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Im skeptical only because of the history of how the Cardinals do this when a pitcher doesnt pitch, or takes a delay before his next assignment. Even 250 wins is a rare accomplishment at this point. This is a veteran, and he knows what he needs to do. JAWS and peak (WAR7) gains are the major drivers of this, but positional standards, traditional milestones, and ordinal rankings are considerations as well. But in evaluating Wainwright by the standards of the modern starting pitchers, he has a path albeit a narrow one that requires him to sustain his late-30s rebirth for at least one and possibly two more seasons that seemed impossible when he was in the midst of an extended sunset phase late in the 2010s. This doesnt mean that Wainwright definitely deserves to make itTim Hudson, who barely qualified for a second turn on the BBWAA ballot and didnt receive the 5% of votes needed to qualify for a third, ranks ahead of him, for instance. The two were teammates from 2005-07, and Rolen was out at third base when Wainwright recorded the final out of the 2006 World Series for the St. Louis Cardinals.. For the last 35 years Bernie Miklasz has entertained, enlightened, and connected with generations of St. Louis sports fans. Follow him on Twitter @jay_jaffe and Mastodon @jay_jaffe. Now his current difficulties are being downplayed because the leg/glute tightness, the back spasms, the finger. DRS changes, injuries, and the shortened season have dealt the slugging third basemans case a set of blows in recent years, making it even harder to overcome his late start. March 2, 2023 | 00:00:10. He was merely a good pitcher on the Detroit Tigers, vastly overshadowed by teammate Justin Verlander. document.getElementById( "ak_js_1" ).setAttribute( "value", ( new Date() ).getTime() ); Enter your email address to follow this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email. But Adam Wainwright's story also isn't complete. Just want to take care of some minor inflammation after he ramped up his throwing and pitch counts. Wainwright is one of 39 pitchers to record at least 180 wins, 2,000 strikeouts and an ERA of 3.40 or lower while making at least 350 starts and throwing at least 2,300 innings. I am a big fan, not as a universal absolute but as a general guideline, of the Jay Jaffe JAWS system, a thing I have mentioned repeatedly in my writing, though I also prefer to use a hybrid model which incorporates a players career performance and his seven best individual seasons (his peak) as measured not only by Baseball Reference but by FanGraphs (in most non-catcher cases, over the course of a career, this doesnt make a huge difference, but in the most discussed cases, the margins are so thin that I am happy to look at as much data as possible). Hes still going strong, as hes tops in the NL in wins (8) in 2017. Has Adam Wainwright done enough to deserve a place in the Hall of Fame? There is a trio of starting pitchers not yet Hall-eligible who rank somewhere between Gooden and WainwrightFlix Hernndez, Cole Hamels, and Chris Sale. Its my belief that this as-yet-unnamed metric which Im hoping to formalize in time for the upcoming election cycle does a better job of emphasizing closers rather than starters-turned-relievers who racked up significant WAR in the rotations before making the move to roles more fireman-like than closer-like; it bumps the likes of Tom Gordon, Ellis Kinder, Bobby Shantz, and Kerry Wood down several pegs. Adam Wainwright 141-80, 3.23 ERA, 1,547 strikeouts, 124 adjusted ERA 3x All-Star, 2 Gold Gloves, 2 rings Injuries have plagued Adam Wainwright more than the other pitchers on this list; he's going to be 36 in a few months and he's logged just 1,800 innings due to Tommy John surgery (2011) and an Achilles tendon rupture (2015). Ill assume that FanGraphss weirdly defensive stance against Wainwrights pursuit of bulletin board material has subsided by then. Before going down, he made solid progress towards the 200-win and 3,000 strikeout milestones; hes at 184 and 2,653, respectively, the latter thanks to a 30.1% strikeout rate, his best since 2016. Your login session has expired. Look at that. This isnt your fathers Hall of Fame. Greinke has won an ERA title in each league. But theres a rhythm to the ritual. How much more does Wainwright need to do to make the Hall of Fame in your eyes? 55 votes, 66 comments. And hes no slouch in the regular season Bumgarner is a four-time All-Star with a sub-3.00 career ERA, a high career strikeout rate, and hes even connected for 16 home runs at the plate. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Gibson, who died last October, finished with 3,117. Will this happen? Next, select your favourite teams and leagues and well show you their latest news and scores in the My Favourites section of the home page. Homecoming Kings: After raucous red-coated pomp, Wainwright and O'Neill To be clear, Adam Wainwright will certainly make it onto the Baseball Hall of Fame ballot, and based on the ease with which even seemingly fringe candidates are able to garner them, will probably get some votes. 5th stage: 60-day IL. Josh Donaldson, third base (43.8 career | 41.2 Peak | 42.5 JAWS, +1.5 JAWS). Zack Greinke has had an interesting career. I think Hall of Fame credentials might change a bit, Wainwright said. While I dont think the statistical mistake that was inducting Rick Ferrell means that we should induct Mickey Tettleton, in my perfect world we would have sixteen Hall of Famers at the catcher position, though the ones who are in would be different (for instance, among the currently eligible, Gene Tenace would be there), and we would go from there. Paul Goldschmidt, first base (49.1 career | 40.6 Peak | 44.9 JAWS, +2.2 JAWS). But Adam Wainwrights story also isnt complete. With 273 homers, Goldschmidt could reach 300 by the end of next season, though with 1,539 hits, the 2,000 milestone and real clarity on his fate is probably three seasons away. Everyone Thinks Justin Verlander Belongs In The Hall Of Fame. So Why The 40-year . The 35-year-old has a career record of 169-89 with a 3.19 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 2,682 strikeouts. 82-53, 2.99 ERA, 1,380 strikeouts, 138 adjusted ERA. "Adam Wainwright is going to have such an interesting Hall of Fame case once he retires." - Connor Looker Throughout his career, Wainwright has won a World Series and has been selected to. All stats used here were sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Stathead, Bill James Online, Fielding Bible, Baseball Prospectus, Baseball Savant, Brooks Baseball Net and Spotrac.